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id="ablui8ik" class="show_left"> <div id="ablui8ik" class="show_news"> <h1>2009年整個(gè)國(guó)內(nèi)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資格局或?qū)氐赘淖?/h1> <div id="ablui8ik" class="show_news_info"> <span></span> <span>來(lái)源：中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)網(wǎng)</span> <span>時(shí)間：2009-02-12</span> <span>點(diǎn)擊：<script src="/index.php/portal/api/getNumber?id=27580&type=viewnum"></script></span>  <span><a href="#pl">我來(lái)說(shuō)兩句</a></span> </div> <div id="ablui8ik" class="show_news_all" id="frameContent" >  <P>　　歲末年初，各大地產(chǎn)行年度報(bào)告紛紛出爐，業(yè)內(nèi)普遍認(rèn)為，以2008年三季度為分水嶺，中國(guó)的商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)由熱變冷，增速放緩并下跌。預(yù)計(jì)2009年需求依然疲軟，加上持續(xù)不斷的新增供應(yīng)量，商業(yè)地產(chǎn)面臨較大的下行壓力，或?qū)⒀永m(xù)去年四季度的趨勢(shì)，但REITs的推出及保險(xiǎn)資金允許進(jìn)入商業(yè)地產(chǎn)可能使2009年整個(gè)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展格局發(fā)生根本性的變化。</P> <P>　　三季度后開(kāi)始走低DTZ戴德梁行的研究報(bào)告顯示，去年第四季度北京寫(xiě)字樓平均租金為228.2元/平米/月，凈吸納量較上一季度降低95.2%，空置率繼續(xù)攀升。</P> <P>　　北京商業(yè)地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)生的變化并非孤例。世邦魏理仕提供的數(shù)據(jù)表明，上海寫(xiě)字樓市場(chǎng)2008年第四季度出現(xiàn)負(fù)吸納，全市平均租金環(huán)比下跌8.7%，至241.8元/平米/月；盡管沒(méi)有新增供應(yīng)，市場(chǎng)空置率繼續(xù)環(huán)比上漲0.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至10.5%。廣州的寫(xiě)字樓租金跌至103.3元/平米/月，深圳優(yōu)質(zhì)寫(xiě)字樓的該數(shù)據(jù)亦下跌5.7%至116.7元/平米/月。</P> <P>　　仲量聯(lián)行商業(yè)地產(chǎn)部主管張瑩認(rèn)為："全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的不穩(wěn)定性導(dǎo)致越來(lái)越多的企業(yè)租戶(hù)，尤其是跨國(guó)企業(yè)紛紛收縮規(guī)模并取消了此前的擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃。"而一線(xiàn)城市甲級(jí)寫(xiě)字樓的主要需求源于國(guó)際跨國(guó)公司，受其影響，部分甲級(jí)寫(xiě)字樓的租金全面下調(diào)。</P> <P>　　對(duì)于高端住宅市場(chǎng)，第一太平戴維斯的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，北京甲級(jí)公寓、服務(wù)式公寓和高端別墅的平均租金在第四季度分別下降0.2%、2.3%和0.6%、平均入住率分別下降7.4%、8.4%、0.5%。世邦魏理仕報(bào)告表明，上海高端住宅2008年第四季度平均價(jià)格環(huán)比微幅下降了1.1%至每平米36491元。值得注意的是，北京高端別墅的售價(jià)僅下降0.4%，低于甲級(jí)公寓的8.3%，這與別墅受到限制的供應(yīng)量及其客戶(hù)群體堅(jiān)挺的購(gòu)買(mǎi)力有關(guān)。</P> <P>　　相比其他物業(yè)形態(tài)，零售商鋪市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)最為堅(jiān)挺。仲量聯(lián)行的報(bào)告顯示，2008年北京商鋪市場(chǎng)的新增供應(yīng)創(chuàng)歷史新高，市場(chǎng)存量飆升45%，新增的925,000平方米商鋪空間被零售商鋪?zhàn)赓U一空，接近2007年的3倍。整個(gè)北京商鋪市場(chǎng)的平均租金攀升至7,238元/平米/年，創(chuàng)歷史新高。世邦魏理仕透露，國(guó)際快速時(shí)裝品牌依然在深圳積極開(kāi)店，優(yōu)質(zhì)零售物業(yè)一樓商鋪平均租金環(huán)比上升1.9%至22.9元/平米/日，空置率下降1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，錄得全年最低的5.6%；廣州商鋪整體空置率維持8.3%的原有水平，優(yōu)質(zhì)物業(yè)仍維持滿(mǎn)租狀態(tài)；但上海市場(chǎng)新增供應(yīng)量達(dá)到81000平方米，首層、二層租金環(huán)比下降幅度超過(guò)2%。</P> <P>　　不過(guò)DTZ戴德梁行的報(bào)告中提到，四季度北京4環(huán)以外一些大型中端商業(yè)項(xiàng)目的市場(chǎng)需求表現(xiàn)放緩，租客處于觀(guān)望階段。對(duì)商業(yè)面積需求的減慢在許多項(xiàng)目中表現(xiàn)十分明顯，多次推遲入市時(shí)間。</P> <P>　　投資格局或有根本性變化展望2009年，商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的供應(yīng)量仍大幅增加，預(yù)計(jì)市場(chǎng)將延續(xù)去年四季度的趨勢(shì)。</P> <P>　　仲量聯(lián)行的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，北京市場(chǎng)寫(xiě)字樓和商鋪地產(chǎn)供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將再創(chuàng)歷史新高。寫(xiě)字樓預(yù)計(jì)供應(yīng)量將達(dá)233萬(wàn)平方米，使市場(chǎng)存量將再增長(zhǎng)27%；商鋪預(yù)計(jì)新增供應(yīng)量將達(dá)到167萬(wàn)平方米，市場(chǎng)存量將飆升51%。</P> <P>　　第一太平戴維斯預(yù)計(jì)，2009年822套服務(wù)式公寓、2774套甲級(jí)公寓項(xiàng)目和119套高端別墅項(xiàng)目將進(jìn)入高端住宅市場(chǎng)，但許多公司已經(jīng)削減了外籍員工的數(shù)量同時(shí)降低了現(xiàn)有外籍員工的住房預(yù)算，這將對(duì)租金產(chǎn)生進(jìn)一步的壓力。</P> <P>　　住宅銷(xiāo)售市場(chǎng)方面，仲量聯(lián)行的北京研究部主管馬安平認(rèn)為其市場(chǎng)售價(jià)在2009年初仍上行乏力，"購(gòu)房者對(duì)開(kāi)發(fā)商進(jìn)一步降價(jià)的預(yù)期以及政府可能出臺(tái)更多的激勵(lì)措施，價(jià)值租賃市場(chǎng)的大幅暴跌，將給住宅銷(xiāo)售市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)帶來(lái)下跌壓力。"但DTZ戴德梁行卻認(rèn)為高端住宅由于其客戶(hù)群體不減的購(gòu)買(mǎi)欲望和堅(jiān)挺的購(gòu)買(mǎi)力而具有抗跌性。第一太平戴維斯則認(rèn)為，由于政府主要關(guān)注于對(duì)住宅低端市場(chǎng)的扶持，高端公寓交易價(jià)格有可能繼續(xù)小幅下降，但高端別墅新增供給的稀缺性使得其售價(jià)有可能保持穩(wěn)定。</P> <P>　　需求的疲軟一方面是外需的減少，另一方面也與國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣、內(nèi)需減少有關(guān)。DTZ戴德梁行預(yù)計(jì)在多重政策的利好影響下，今年中后期，北京住宅市場(chǎng)剛性需求將得以釋放，并抑制高檔住宅租金價(jià)格的繼續(xù)下滑。仲量聯(lián)行還認(rèn)為，政府刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的計(jì)劃可能對(duì)租戶(hù)的需求產(chǎn)生作用，但真正發(fā)揮作用"需要假以時(shí)日"，不能保證真正有效。</P> <P>　　但仲量聯(lián)行指出，正在審議之中的引入房地產(chǎn)投資信托基金以及放寬對(duì)保險(xiǎn)公司直接投資于國(guó)內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的限制這兩項(xiàng)方案的最終出臺(tái)可能使2009年整個(gè)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展格局發(fā)生根本性的變化。</P>  </div> <div id="ablui8ik" class="show_news_fx">  <div id="ablui8ik" class="show_share jiathis_style"> <span id="ablui8ik" class="jiathis_txt">分享:</span> <a class="jiathis_button_tools_1"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tools_2"></a> <a class="jiathis_button_tools_3"></a> <a class="jiathis jiathis_txt jiathis_separator jtico jtico_jiathis" target="_blank">更多</a> </div> <script type="text/javascript" src="http://v3.jiathis.com/code_mini/jia.js?uid=1356576450354725" charset="utf-8"></script>  <div id="ablui8ik" class="list_fenye" id="pages"> </div> </div> </div>  <div id="ablui8ik" class="show_pl"> <div class="ablui8ik" id="commenthtml">  <script>getcomment(27580,0)</script> </div> <script src="/index.php/portal/api/comments?id=27580"></script> </div> <div id="ablui8ik" class="list_ad1"> </div> </div> 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